2 research outputs found
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Portfolio management using computational intelligence approaches. Forecasting and Optimising the Stock Returns and Stock Volatilities with Fuzzy Logic, Neural Network and Evolutionary Algorithms.
Portfolio optimisation has a number of constraints resulting from some practical matters and regulations. The closed-form mathematical solution of portfolio optimisation problems usually cannot include these constraints. Exhaustive search to reach the exact solution can take prohibitive amount of computational time. Portfolio optimisation models are also usually impaired by the estimation error problem caused by lack of ability to predict the future accurately. A number of Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithms are proposed to solve the problem with two objectives subject to cardinality constraints, floor constraints and round-lot constraints. Fuzzy logic is incorporated into the Vector Evaluated Genetic Algorithm (VEGA) to but solutions tend to cluster around a few points. Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) gives solutions which are evenly distributed portfolio along the effective front while MOGA is more time efficient. An Evolutionary Artificial Neural Network (EANN) is proposed. It automatically evolves the ANN¿s initial values and structures hidden nodes and layers. The EANN gives a better performance in stock return forecasts in comparison with those of Ordinary Least Square Estimation and of Back Propagation and Elman Recurrent ANNs. Adaptation algorithms for selecting a pair of forecasting models, which are based on fuzzy logic-like rules, are proposed to select best models given an economic scenario. Their predictive performances are better than those of the comparing forecasting models. MOGA and SPEA2 are modified to include a third objective to handle model risk and are evaluated and tested for their performances. The result shows that they perform better than those without the third objective
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A survey on portfolio optimisation with metaheuristics.
A portfolio optimisation problem involves allocation
of investment to a number of different assets to maximize return
and minimize risk in a given investment period. The selected
assets in a portfolio not only collectively contribute to its return
but also interactively define its risk as usually measured by a
portfolio variance. This presents a combinatorial optimisation
problem that involves selection of both a number of assets as well
as its quantity (weight or proportion or units). The problem is
extremely complex due to a large number of selectable assets.
Furthermore, the problem is dynamic and stochastic in nature
with a number of constraints presenting a complex model which is
difficult to solve for exact solution. In the last decade research
publications have reported the applications of
metaheuristic-based optimisation methods with some success.,
This paper presents a review of these reported models,
optimisation problem formulations and metaheuristic approaches
for portfolio optimisation